Gannett (“GCI”) offers an exciting combination of deep value, business transformation and uncorrelated, event-driven upside:
- Cheap valuation – 5.3x EV/EBITDA and 27% FCF yield on ‘25 numbers for a business transformation story with strong management and improving profitability. This indicates a strong GCI intrinsic value.
- Digital transformation is well underway with proof of concept, including 1) growing digital subs, 2) growing ad revenues and affiliate deals and 3) internal systems investments paying off
- Ongoing debt paydown from asset sales and internal FCF should unlock a global refinancing of the capital structure, as hinted by debt tranches trading near par
- Litigation against Google for anti-competitive behavior has merit and potentially unlocks a windfall. Additionally, AI content-copyright issues could lead to litigation claims and forward-looking licensing deals.
We target 200 – 300% upside over the next 1-2 years upon reasonable multiple rerating without giving credit for shareholder friendly capital allocation (i.e. buybacks).
GCI offers a combination of deep value, business transformation and uncorrelated, event-driven upside
- GCI screens cheap on traditional metrics with an emphasis on FCF generation
- GCI trades at 5.3x EV/EBITDA on ’25 street consensus estimates
- We estimate at least $149mm of FCF before asset sales in ’25 (27% FCF yield)
- Management has guided for FCF to grow at a 40%+ CAGR from 2023 to 2026 ($57mm => $155mm). Therefore, analysts still believe the company is undervalued based on its DCF valuation
- Digital transformation is well underway with proof of concept, yet flies under the radar
- Gannett is successfully mitigating print declines by growing digital (both subscription and advertising revs)
- Topline will be down YoY in 2024; but inflecting to organic growth on a run-rate basis by YE’24
- Combined with excellent bottom-line execution from cost cuts – EBITDA growing consistently from 2022
- GCI Wacc is 8.1%
- Equity rerate amplified by upcoming balance sheet developments
- GCI is levered 3.6x net, but the junior 1.7x turns are in the form of a convert (trading in the high 90s). GCI P/E ratio is also stable at 15x.
- Company is targeting a global debt refi this year before a potential favorable Google litigation development
- GCI stock should rerate substantially given 1) dilution overhang removed, and 2) maturities pushed out
- Litigation Optionality
- Google Ad Tech Abuse litigation offers potential windfall that could be worth the market cap
- DOJ and 34 states filed lawsuits against Google for unlawful monopolization of online advertising
- GCI is the largest news publisher in the US and has its own lawsuit against Google for $1.7bn of damages
- GCI’s counsel (Kellogg Hansen) took the case on contingency – compelling signal & no cost to GCI
- AI copyright disputes could provide additional upside in the form of litigation claims (damages) and/or licensing deals
We calculate 200-300% upside based on above catalysts, without assuming any accretion from shareholder friendly actions. That said, the FCF profile and potential litigation proceeds should allow for capital return in the not-too-distant future, which could significantly increase forward returns.
Undeservedly Low Valuation: GCI is an exception in an otherwise secularly declining industry
We all know that print media – in this case, newspaper businesses – trade at deservedly low multiples given rapid declines in legacy print subscriptions and advertising revenues. This is not a novel observation. The world is going digital, multi-medium, video, social, yadda yadda. We get it.
And yet. Folks who have been paying attention have noticed that the New York Times (“NYT”) trades at 17x ‘24E EBITDA. From a value investing perspective, this is a fantastic number to have. If you travel back in time, NYT was not always a market darling; to the contrary, the stock traded in the more typical 5-8x EBITDA band until its re-rating journey took hold in 2017 or so. Over time, NYT has become a case study for how a scaled player with broad brand awareness can successfully execute a transformation to digital. It’s not make-believe or impossible. The NYT story demonstrates that the bid for news, commentary, gossip, and sports has remained steady. What has changed is the required delivery, as the modern audience wants a combination of print with audio companions (podcasts, etc.) and video. With the right mousetrap, timely content generation still has a role to play.
Enter Gannett. GCI has a crown jewel, USA Today, regional trophy assets (e.g. Palm Beach Post), and all sorts of smaller publications around the country. GCI remains a show-me story, but evidence has been mounting that the transition is playing out. We have seen notable improvements in digital KPIs, moderation in overall topline revenue declines, and affiliate partnership deals getting signed. For investors, we believe this is a key moment to take a look given that the company has explicitly guided to inflecting consolidated revenue to positive year-over-year growth at the end of this year. Upon achieving run-rate organic growth by 4Q’24 and with actual prints in 2025, our expectation is that the market should rapidly re-rate the equity. Given respective scales, we expect GCI to trade well below NYT’s multiple – we don’t want to be unrealistic – but even a range of 7-9x leads to a multi-bagger outcome from current levels.
Organic Revenue Inflection: Digital revenue growth expected to more than offset print declines by 4Q’24
This is a classic story of crossing lines (a large-but-declining segment shrinks while a small-but-growing area grows until, eventually, the negative impact from the bad is more than offset by the positive impact of the good). For GCI, total revenue declines are moderating sequentially as the legacy print business becomes a smaller piece of the pie. Meanwhile, digital revenues have had solid sequential growth throughout 2023 and are expected to ramp in 2024. Digital subscription revenues are growing high teens / low 20s, supported by ARPU upside and growth in subs, while advertising and services revenues enjoy upside from affiliate partnerships growing rapidly off a small base.
On this last point, when it comes to affiliate and content partnerships, GCI rents out platform eyeballs for 3rd party advertisers to monetize. As you can imagine, this involves little to no cost for GCI (95%+ incremental margins). We expect $20mm revenue in 2024 with minimum guarantees and management hopes to scale this to a $150-200mm topline business within 5 years.
Refinancing Catalyst: Balance sheet repair and refinancing optionality ignored by the market
GCI, which is highly regarded by many of the best investing websites, is focused on refinancing the capital structure in the near term. There are several key benefits:
- Push out maturities and create a longer runway to continue executing on the digital transition
- Resolve the dilution overhang from the converts (convertible into ~97mm shares with a $5.00/sh. strike)
- Potentially improve terms – including rate, covenants, and restricted payments capacity
We believe that the capital structure is easily refinanceable given debt paydown accelerated by ongoing asset sales, inflecting FCF generation (40% FCF CAGR guided by management over 2023 – 2026), an additional equity cushion from recent re-rating ($2.3 –> $3.8), and debt tranches all trading near par. As a result, CGI fair value has been declining recently. We think it makes sense to work on the capital stack before the potentially lucrative litigation developments that might start as soon as September. We especially believe the company would aim to work something out on the convert, which has a $5 strike.
Free call options (ad tech abuse & AI): Gannett’s litigation opportunities could be worth $1bn+
Google’s Alleged Ad Tech Abuse: Google has enjoyed a stranglehold on the digital advertising ecosystem ever since it acquired DoubleClick in 2007. On 1/23/23, the DOJ filed a civil antitrust suit against Google alleging monopolistic ad tech abuse. A few points are worth calling out. First, this is not the Google vs. DOJ search case. That is separate and unrelated. Second, the DOJ is not acting alone: 17 state AGs signed on while Texas brought its own case and has been joined by 16 additional states. In total, it is the DOJ + 34 states all going after Google. Third, the case is proceeding in the “Rocket Docket” of Eastern District of Virginia with trial scheduled to start 9/9/24. Litigation can drag forever, so we find this timing relevant. Even with this news, CGI is still in the Nancy Pelosi Stock Trade Tracker.
Gannett’s potential upside is not rooted directly in the DOJ/state case, though it is related. On 6/20/23, Gannett filed suit against Google alleging abusive behavior in digital advertising. Notably, the law firm of Kellogg, Hansen decided to take the case entirely on contingency, meaning GCI is not paying a cent while this proceeds (i.e., this is a truly “free” call option). Though estimating the value to GCI is difficult, we believe damages could be in the $1.7bn range and would be subject to automatic trebling ($5.1bn). That’s the reason it is crucial to have your website indexed instantly by Google. From Google’s perspective the money is trivial, given a current cash balance of more than $100bn and $29bn CFO in Q1’24. What is more impactful, for Google, is keeping its company together. Therefore, if they find a path forward with the government, we believe settlement talks with Gannett would occur in short order. Any reasonable figure – say, $500mm – would be material given GCI’s market cap.
AI Copyright Infringement. Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) algorithms require massive amounts of data for training/improvement. Moreover, original content is invaluable to this effort. Lucky for Gannett, creating reams of content is what it has been doing for decades.
Ever since the recent AI explosion, accusations of AI developers using content without permission have abounded. This yields two potentially lucrative angles for Gannett. With a backward-looking lens, GCI can seek damages. As one example, consider the NY Times lawsuit filed in December 2023 against OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement. NYT noted “billions” in damages. Looking forward, GCI can aim to strike licensing deals to capitalize on this new source of content demand. As an example of what this might look like, consider the deal News Corp signed last month (May 2024) with OpenAI for 5 years and a total value of $250mm. Between damages and go-forward deals, GCI could unlock another $500mm+ of value over time from the AI gold rush. That’s why many of the best stock research websites recommend CGI as a strong hold
Putting it together, we see a few shots on goal that cost the company next-to-nothing and could be worth multiples the market cap. It is rare to have something be literally free and yet potentially lucrative.